Political Diary

Now with the elections over, it’s time to scramble for the numbers. Telugu Desham Party (TDP) chief Chandrababu Naidu is busy not counting the chicken before they hatch, but trying to check out which are the chicken that he can woo and bank on to get the golden eggs.
The TDP office in Hyderabad is buzzing with activity nowadays. Chandrababu Naidu is back after a very short break in the US.
Party workers from all over have been summoned to give their account of what went right and what went wrong in the run up to elections.
Elections and campaigns may be over but for Chandrababu Naidu, it is miles to go before he sleeps. He has been having marathon meetings to study the strengths and weaknesses of his party in each district and constituency. The joke around here is that he neither rests nor allows others to rest.
In between, there are behind-the-scenes liaisons with political allies and possible future partners. Naidu knows these are precarious times, so he is keeping the media at bay, even as he works out the many permutations that could make a winning combination

YS Rajasekhara Reddy on Thursday became the first Andhra Pradesh chief minister to complete five years in office and was confident of a second successive elections. The Congress leader, popularly known as YSR, had taken oath as the state's 14th chief minister at the Lal Bahadur Stadium here on May 14, 2004 after he led his party to a landslide victory, ending the over nine year rule of the Telugu Desam Party's (TDP) N Chandrababu Naidu. YSR, who returned to the state capital Thursday from a holiday, cut a cake to mark the completion of his five years in office. "YSR is the first chief minister to complete a five years in office. No chief minister since the state's formation in 1956 has completed a full term," said finance minister K. Rosaiah. Despite having been in the top post more than one time, three former chief ministers could not complete five years in office. They either opted for elections before the assembly completed its term or had to quit due to different reasons. Naidu was the longest serving chief minister in the state's history but he went in for early elections in 2004. Unlike the previous tenures of the Congress party when it used to frequently change the chief ministers due to internal squabbles, the 60-year-old YSR had a smooth term as he faced no dissension. YSR swept to power due to the massive anti-incumbency wave, the agrarian crisis, and suicides by hundreds of farmers. He launched massive pro-people programmes like free electricity to farmers, waiver of farm loans, housing and land distribution for poor, monthly pensions for widows, old age people and handicapped, Rajiv Arogyasri or community health insurance scheme, rice at Rs.2 per kg and four percent reservations for backward classes among Muslims. His government also took up an ambitious Jalayagnam programme to complete all pending irrigation projects at a whopping cost of Rs.1.5 trillion to provide water to an additional 10 million acres of land. His government also launched first-ever direct talks with the Maoist guerrillas. However, after the failure of peace talks, he dealt with the Maoists with an iron hand, eliminating the top leadership of the rebel group. However, the term saw the opposition making serious allegations of corruption against him, especially in awarding contracts for the irrigation projects and works for outer ring road around Hyderabad. YSR also failed to keep his allies with him. The Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS), Communist Party of India (CPI) and Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPM) all parted ways and joined hands with the main opposition TDP to fight last month's elections under the banner of Mahakutami or the grand alliance. But with no strong anti-incumbency, YSR is confident of retaining the power in the state despite the grand alliance and the emergence of the Praja Rajyam of actor-turned politician Chiranjeevi. "Congress will win the election hands down. We will get at least 230 assembly seats," YSR had said just before the polls. In 2004, the Congress had bagged 185 seats on its own in the 294-member assembly. The Congress-led alliance had won 226 seats. "This government has taken several historic pro-people measures during the last five years. Both the people of the state and the Congress high command are happy with YSR. We won the last election and we are going to win this election too," said Rosaiah.

Exit polls by national TV channels in effect predicted that TDP’s Chandrababu Naidu had been done in by Chiranjeevi’s Prajarajyam, leading to gains for Y S Rajasekhara Reddy’s Congress. They also foresaw that Congress would be kept in check - somewhat - in the Assembly polls but was well set to bag the lion’s share of seats in the Lok Sabha from AP. The NDTV exit poll foresaw a strong anti-incumbency against the YSR government with the Congress vote percentage falling by as much as 11 per cent, but this would not translate into loss of seats. This because the biggest beneficiary of that would be Chiranjeevi and not TDP. It predicted that PRP would get 18 per cent of the votes which included the entire 11 per cent that the Congress lost and seven per cent that was with TDP in the last election. In terms of numbers for the Lok Sabha, the exit poll gave the Congress 29 seats, TDP 10 seats, TRS two seats and PRP one. The CNN-IBN post-poll survey gave the Congress 20 Lok Sabha seats while for the Assembly, it said the Congress will get 38 percentage of the votes. However, this will be balanced by the TDP getting 31 per cent and the TRS seven per cent. It gave the PRP 14 per cent of the vote share. This survey too hinted at a hung Assembly. The Headlines Today exit poll gave the Congress 22 seats, TDP 14, TRS five and MIM one seat. Thus according to it, the PRP will not open the account as far as the Lok Sabha tally is concerned. According to Star News, the Congress will get 23 Lok Sabha seats, TDP 10 seats, TRS five seats, Left three and MIM one seat. According to Times Now, the Congress and TDP will get 15 Lok Sabha seats each, TRS five, Left two seats and MIM one. This is the only channel that predicted four LS seats for PRP. According to analysts, while Chiranjeevi is way off his mark in claiming that the PRP would get simple majority and that he would become the chief minister, his playing the role of a king-maker in the state politics seems very much on the cards. “In a hung Assembly, Chiranjeevi can call the shots if he gets anywhere between 40 to 60 seats,” said one. While the Congress was reasonably happy with the predictions, it was not all cheers at the CM’s camp office. “Despite the Congress doing well in the Lok Sabha, more even results in the assembly is not good news for the CM,” said a loyalist. The TDP, meanwhile, said it would prefer to wait for the actual results to come.

Senior IAS officers posted as election observers in the northern states say they found elections in Bihar less expensive when compared with Andhra Pradesh and other Southern states.Several of them, who returned to the State for a break, narrated interesting incidents on condition of anonymity.
“Election rallies in Bihar are a low-key affair and a good gathering is anywhere between 2,000 and 5,000 persons,” said a senior IAS offier. “There is no large-scale mobilisation of people like in our states. You hardly find people distributing money and indulging in vulgar display of wealth.”
He added that candidates spent money on vehicles and providing food to people, particularly party activists and supporters. One officer booked a case against a candidate for providing dal, roti and sabzi to people against the Election Commission norms.“Unlike, AP where money and liquor are distributed, you find politicians providing food,” said another officer.
The officers were also satisfied with the facilities extended to them in Bihar. “We had no problem with the food,” said an official. “Police made elaborate arrangements and there was frisking at every point to ensure trouble free polling.”
“In one incident, Pappu Yadav had to go by road when his helicopter was seized by the police on the direction of the EC,” said another IAS officer. “He made no fuss.”However, the poverty in the northern states depressed them. “Many villages have no pucca roads unlike Andhra Pradesh and other southern States,” said one of them. “They are 20 years behind us.”

The BJP leader, Mr Venkaiah Naidu, on Tuesday said his party would wait for the results on May 16 before moving to woo more allies to its side.
Asked about the Telugu Desam, which the NDA was courting for support, Mr Naidu said, “The TD is an independent party. Let us wait for the results and deci-de,” Mr Naidu said on his return from Hyderabad.
Mr Nai-du did a quick check of party fortunes in AP, where he said the BJP would “accept support from anyone backing Mr L.K. Advani as Prime Minister.”
TD sources said the party was in a fix. “We cannot align with the Congress. But the last time we aligned with the BJP we lost a large chunk of minority votes,” a senior TD leader said.
“Another issue is Telang-ana. If the NDA is able to pass the Telangana bill then there is a fear that (TD president) Mr Chandrababu Naidu may be sidelined,” he said.

Praja Rajyam party president Chiranjeevi has assured leaders of the Mahila Rajyam, the women’s wing of the party, that they would be given priority in the Legislative Council and in the local body elections.
As part of his meetings with the various wings of the party today, he met the Mahila Rajyam State Committee, about 200 members of which attended the meeting along with president Shobha Rani and executive president Vijaya Laxmi. In the meeting, Chiranjeevi thanked the women’s wing for campaigning tirelessly and ensuring that women voted in large numbers.
At today’s meeting, the mahila committee members complained that party leaders and candidates had treated them with indifference.
“They did not even bother to arrange drinking water, though we were sweating it out under the scorching sun,’’ they said, and also criticised the candidates for a lacklustre campaign.
Further, they voiced unhappiness at the difficulties placed in their way in communicating with the party chief.

The Telugu Desam president, Mr N. Chandrababu Naidu, has decided to convene a meeting of the Third Front parties after May 16. Mr Naidu is in touch with the Left, AIADMK and BSP leaders and plans to talk to the TRS chief, Mr K. Chandrasekhar Rao, despite the latter with the NDA.
According to TD estimates, the TRS could 30-plus seats in the Assembly and five Lok Sabha seats. And therein lies the rub. If the TD falls short of numbers, the TRS could use its position to nudge the party towards the NDA
“TRS support to the NDA has become a complex problem for us. The TRS might insist on TD support to the NDA in lieu of its support to Mahakutami in the state. If the TD gets majority, there will be no problem. But if it has to depend on TRS, the problem will compounded,” a senior TD leader said.
Sources said TD leaders were in touch with Mr Rao and a meeting has been planned between Mr Naidu and the TRS chief.
Mr Naidu said neither the Congress and the BJP would be able to form a coalition government. “I am confident the Third Front will form government at the Centre,” he said. Regional parties like the TD would play a key role at the Centre, he said.

K. Chandrasekhar Rao’s switchover to the NDA, for whom he campaigned in Amritsar today, could hurt the Left-backed third front more in Andhra Pradesh than in Delhi.
Left leaders are worried whether key Andhra ally Chandrababu Naidu might now be tempted to do a Rao, although there has so far been no concrete indication of that happening.
The problem for Naidu is, his hopes of becoming chief minister have been dealt a blow by Rao’s somersault.
In the Assembly polls held together with the Lok Sabha elections in Andhra on April 16 and 23, a “grand Opposition alliance” of the Telugu Desam, Rao’s Telengana Rashtra Samiti (TRS) and the Left took on the ruling Congress.
The TRS contested from 48 of the 294 Assembly constituencies, and the seats it wins would be crucial to the alliance’s chances of coming to power in Hyderabad.
Although TRS sources have suggested the possibility of “being part of the alliance in the state and supporting the NDA at the Centre”, the Left is likely to find this unpalatable.
In such a situation, if the Telugu Desam cannot form the government in Andhra, it may be tempted to return to the NDA, especially since the Congress is its biggest enemy in the state.
Rao’s switchover, which he announced at the NDA’s Ludhiana rally yesterday, may also cost the third front four or five seats at the Centre. The TRS has contested nine Lok Sabha seats.
Sources said CPI leader Sudhakar Reddy had received a hint about Rao’s plans and had been trying to reach him for three days, but couldn’t get through to him. TRS leaders apparently kept telling Reddy that Rao had travelled to Punjab “on an invitation from (Parkash Singh) Badal”, the Akali Dal chief minister.

The Andhra Pradesh Congress Committee (APCC) today refuted the charge of Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) President K Chandrasekhara Rao that the Congress had deceived the people of Telangana by not creating a separate State.
Addressing a press conference here, party spokesperson N Tulasi Reddy claimed that Mr Rao had no commitment on Telangana and was using Telangana issue only to reap political mileage.
He claimed that though the Congress was in the process of forming separate Telangana, Mr Rao had made the mistake of leaving the UPA, causing delay in the formation of Telangana. Mr Rao had committed a great mistake by earlier joining the Mahakutami and now the NDA.
Party spokesperson P Venkataka Rao said the CPI and CPI (M), who were the members of the Mahakutami, had to reply to the people on Mr Rao’s decision to extend support to the BJP-led NDA.

Prajarajyam president K Chiranjeevi claimed his party would emerge as a major force in national politics after May 16.
Speaking to the media on Monday, the PRP chief reiterated that the party would win more than half of the 42 Lok Sabha seats in the state and secure nothing less than 160 seats in the Assembly. He said Prajarajyam party has been in talks with other parties only at the secondary level and the real scenario would emerge only after the results.
Chiranjeevi said the party would hold talks at the top-level only after the numbers are revealed. "We are certain of PRP’s importance at the national level. We will take up all necessary steps once the results are out. If we get the required numbers, we start negotiations with like-minded parties who are keen on forming the fourth front," he said.
To a query on whether he was a contender for the post of prime minister, he mumbled and said he would speak once the numbers are out on May 16. "Everything depends on the number of seats we win. The issue is too premature for discussion. We will take it up when the results are announced," he added.
Lashing out at TRS chief K Chandrasekhara Rao for extending support to NDA, he asked the TDP chief to clarify on the `maha kutami’s’ stance on the step taken by KCR. "I have already stated that the so-called grand alliance is a `maya kutami’. Their single-point agenda is to come to power at any cost," he said.
He asked grand alliance members to clarify on the latest political drama unfolded by the TRS. "The TDP has already worked with the NDA and the TRS wants to work with NDA, while the Left parties are still keen to support the UPA to keep the BJP-led coalition away from power. The alliance members must clarify on this political mess," he said.
Referring to increasing cases of gastroenteritis and cholera in the state, he demanded imposition of health emergency in the state and take up remedial measures on a war footing.
Earlier in the day, Chiranjeevi held a two-hour interaction with Mahilarajyam members and sought their feedback to strengthen the party at the grassroots level. He promised all disciplined women workers that due recognition would be given to them by accommodating them in various nominated posts, including the Legislative Council.

Praja Rajyam president K. Chiranjeevi on Monday asked Mahila Rajyam leaders not to feel let down and assured them that they would be considered for membership to the Legislative Council.
He spent over two-and-a-half hours talking to them, singing praise of the woman as a home minister, finance minister and the like and how they were ‘naturals’ at multi-tasking.With folded hands, he said there was no need for them to be disappointed and reminded them of the polls to the local bodies in the future too.
“Your services will never go in vain. After being my fans for decades, how can I ever forget you people,” he told them repeatedly, in a bid to convince them to be with him and the party.
Without taking names, he told them never to think of leaving the party.
Initially, in the presence of the media, Mr. Chiranjeevi replied to the queries and reactions of Mahila Rajyam leaders from the districts, with a smile.
However, as the reactions started getting uncomfortable, he asked a party leader to tell the media, specially referring to the cameras of different television channels, to leave.
Among those present were Mahila Rajyam honorary president J. Vijayalakshmi, executive president Shoba Rani and official spokesperson Vasireddy Padma.

A judicial magistrate court of Narsaraopet in Guntur district issued a non-bailable arrest warrant (NBW) against Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Y.S. Rajasekhara Reddy’s son Y.S. Jaganmohan Reddy.
The Narsaraopet police had booked cases against the Congress leader and Kadapa Parliamentary seat candidate along with 11 others for canvassing in Narsaraopet on April 9 beyond the stipulated hours of campaign. Except for Mr. Jaganmohan Reddy, the remaining obtained station bail and the police filed a charge-sheet in court describing him as “absconding,” which led to the magistrate issuing the NBW on Monday.